There's much at stake for the UPA in the five state elections over the next two months. Battling a season of scams, the Congress sees in the elections a chance to silence its critics and prove that voters still have faith in it. But will it be a cakewalk, as the party claims? In West Bengal, its difficult ally in Mamata Banerjee apart, the Left is showing signs of recovery. In Tamil Nadu, it seems to be advantage Jayalalitha, given the DMK's 2G woes. In Kerala, the 'pendulum' syndrome favours the Left alliance, though it's faction-ridden. Outlook gauges the early trends.
By all accounts, it's virtually a foregone conclusion that in the assembly elections in West Bengal—in six phases, to be held from April 10-May 10—history will be made, with 34 years of Left rule swept away by an audacious Trinamool Congress. But in all the talk of the winds of change blowing, something is being overlooked—it has lost the gale force with which it raged around the time of the 2009 parliamentary elections. That was when, in one cyclonic swirl, Mamata and her ally, the Congress, won 25 of 42 seats and handed a drubbing to the Communists. Going by trends in the Lok Sabha polls, and the panchayat elections that followed, even Left leaders privately admit that the TMC will almost certainly topple the Buddhadeb Bhattacharya government.
But naturally, the excitement post Nandigram, Singur and Lalgarh has evaporated. The initial euphoria people felt at the prospect of an alternative to the Left Front has given way to a resigned acceptance that it's really a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. "Mamata was like a breath of fresh air, known for her honesty and integrity. She also stood up against exploitation of the poor, whether in Singur, Nandigram or Lalgarh," points out Sharmistha Adhikari, a human rights activist. "But the last couple of years have exposed her and her party's rhetoric as little more than just hot air." Mamata is unfazed by criticism. "I believe one good person can change all that's bad around her," she told Outlook.
Even the TMC-run municipal corporations in Bengal are not showing significant signs of ushering in an era of good governance. If corruption was a way of life for CPI(M) councillors and other civic body members, TMC councillors are not paragons of virtue either. A developer in the TMC-held Sonarpur municipality area complains, "If CPI(M) councillors demanded Rs 10,000 as bribe for sanctioning building plans, TMC councillors expect nothing less than Rs 30,000."
But, scepticism notwithstanding, there is no denying that the buzz is about Mamata and the Trinamool. Film stars like Tapas Paul and Satabdi Roy are with her. She has given tickets to former IAS and IPS officers. Amit Mitra, the head of FICCI, has joined TMC and is being pitched as the finance minister. She has also roped in former Naxalite leader Purnendu Bose.
Mamata's pitch is that she has a team of intellectuals, financial brains and able administrators to make her government work, should she be elected. She has also taken a leaf out of the Left's book and promised land reforms.
But her ally, the Congress, has teething problems. It was expected that Muslims, who constitute 25 per cent of Bengal's electorate, would vote Congress. Traditionally Left Front supporters, they were gradually disillusioned by such episodes as the Rizwanur killing. Subsequently, Muslims played a prominent part in the Left's fall from grace over the past few years. With the Congress being allotted only 64 seats out of the 294 by the TMC, it did not give Muslim groups any seats. In retaliation, groups like the People's Democratic Conference of India, the People's Democratic Front and the West Bengal State Muslim League have decided to put together a front with smaller parties and have threatened to contest in about 80 seats. This could badly hit the TMC-Congress alliance.
Mamata is banking on anti-incumbency. Though the Left has dropped nine ministers and 50 MLAs from their electoral list and given tickets to grassroots level leaders (touted as new faces), it remains to be seen if that will help them recover the ground and goodwill so hopelessly lost and energise the cadres. It's true that the turnout at recent Left rallies have been impressive, but Communists are past masters at mobilising crowds.
Most people agree that the Left's last ditch effort to win the confidence of the voters—by apologising for their 'mistakes' as they have been doing, and infusing newer, younger blood—is too little and too late. Some optimistic CPI(M) leaders sense a revival of their front. True, some gains have come its way, given the constant bickering within the TMC, and charges of corruption and open criticism of the way the party has been functioning from MPs like Kabir Suman. The Trinamool chief also had a public falling-out with one of her trusted aides, the artist Suvaprasanna, again over her style of functioning.
Despite all this, the voter, it seems, is impatient for a change.
| ALSO IN THIS STORY |
POLITICS: POLLS Congress face corruption charges, AGP old bogeys; the evenly matched parties blink at the ULFA factor | ||||||||||||||
ELECTIONS: TAMIL NADU Amma or the Kalaignar? The election is too close to call in TN. | ||||||||||||||
ELECTIONS: KERALA The Congress-led UDF seems the best bet
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